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Akhilesh Yadav prepares for a third seat in the UP Rajya Sabha elections
Ahead of the elections for 10 Rajya Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party has begun preparations to stake a claim for a third seat. The party is believed to have enough numbers to win two candidates, but will have to garner support from additional MLAs for the third seat. For this reason, there is a lot of discussion in political circles about Akhilesh Yadav’s strategy.
According to media reports, the Akhilesh may turn the 10th Rajya Sabha seat into a contest by fielding a third candidate. For this seat, the party will need additional support from its current tally. This is the part where the votes of other parties and independent or MLAs with different views can play an important role.
Akhilesh Yadav has not yet made the final announcement regarding the name of the third candidate. The first two names being discussed in the reports are Ram Gopal Yadav and former Chief Secretary Alok Ranjan. It is being said that brainstorming is going on within SP regarding the third candidate.
How many MLAs will be needed for the third seat?
According to the current mathematics of Rajya Sabha elections, about 38 first preference votes will be required to win one seat out of 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh. Currently, there are 397 MLAs in the 403-member Assembly, as some seats are vacant.
According to report, after winning two seats, Akhilesh may have around 21 additional votes left and for the third seat it may need the support of around 16-17 more MLAs. Whereas in calculations, based on the combined figures of SP-Congress, about 10-11 additional votes are required for the third seat.
The difference in calculations in different reports may be due to factors such as alliance partners, the number of MLAs present and the method of counting votes. Therefore, the final picture will emerge only after the nomination and electoral equations become clear.
Is there a plan to make inroads into BJP MLAs?
For the third seat, Akhilesh will have to garner support beyond its current numbers. In this context, speculations are being made in political discussions about the possible stance of some MLAs of BJP and its allies. However, there is no official confirmation yet about any particular MLA going in favor of SP.
In Rajya Sabha elections, MLAs vote for the candidates of their choice on the basis of preference. In such a situation, if there is a contest for the third seat, the issue of discipline and cross-voting within the parties can also come up for discussion. During the 2024 Rajya Sabha elections too, there was a political controversy in Uttar Pradesh over cross-voting.
At present it would be premature to say whether SP is actually in a position to bring 10 BJP MLAs into its fold. The main point in the available reports is that the biggest challenge for SP will be to garner the support of additional MLAs for the third seat.
Ramgopal Yadav and Alok Ranjan are among the names in the discussion.
Party General Secretary Ramgopal Yadav and former Chief Secretary Alok Ranjan have emerged as prominent candidates for the SP’s first two seats. Ram Gopal Yadav has been representing SP in the Rajya Sabha for a long time and is among the founding members of the party.
Alok Ranjan is a 1978 batch IAS officer and has also served as the Chief Secretary of Uttar Pradesh. He was also the SP’s Rajya Sabha candidate in 2024. Reports suggest his name is among the potential candidates this time too.
Akhilesh’s strategy regarding the third candidate may be different. According to reports, the party is also considering a face that can convey its PDA equation and social representation through this seat.
The BJP is also strategizing for the eighth seat.
The BJP is said to be in a strong position in seven of the 10 Rajya Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, while the two-seat math for the Samajwadi Party is relatively clear. After this, both the parties have their eyes on the remaining 10th seat.
BJP is also brainstorming on the candidates. According to report, the party is considering eight names out of about 20 possible names. Among these, many names including former Union Minister Smriti Irani, Kaushal Kishore and Rajveer Singh are in discussion.
In such a situation, SP’s decision on the third seat will also be linked to BJP’s strategy. If both parties field additional candidates, the vote arithmetic on the 10th seat could become the main focus of the contest.
The Akhilesh’s relationship with the Congress is also under scrutiny.
Amidst preparations for the Rajya Sabha elections, seat-sharing talks between the SP and the Congress for the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections are also under discussion. Different political interpretations have also emerged regarding Akhilesh Yadav’s absence from the INDIA Block meeting on September 30. SP has described this as busyness related to election preparations.
In the current mathematics of Rajya Sabha, the figure of two Congress MLAs has also been included in the potential support base of SP. However, what will be the role of the allies in the final strategy for the third seat will be clear only after the SP candidate and the electoral equation become clear.
Meanwhile, both BJP and SP are preparing for their respective candidates and numerical strength. Therefore, the Rajya Sabha elections may also impact future political talks between the two parties.
Whose math will work out for the 10th Rajya Sabha seat?
The 10th Rajya Sabha seat of Uttar Pradesh can become the most important contest of this election. If SP fields a third candidate, it will have to garner the support of additional MLAs, while BJP is also trying to increase its number of seats.
The biggest challenge before Akhilesh Yadav will be to keep his MLAs united and also to garner the required additional votes. On the other hand, BJP is also preparing its strategy keeping in mind the possible cross-voting and candidate selection.
At present the name and final number of the third candidate are not clear. As the nomination process progresses, it will become clear how far the SP actually goes for the third seat and how the contest for the 10th seat shapes up.
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