New Delhi: With only four days of the Monsoon Session remaining, considerable activity and heated exchanges are expected in both Houses of Parliament. The central government may introduce some crucial bills during these final four days. Foremost among them is the Delimitation Bill, which previously failed to pass due to the lack of a two-thirds majority. However, if the government introduces it again now, the proceedings in Parliament could prove decisive.
The 22 Lok Sabha MPs from the MK Stalin-led DMK could play a pivotal role in passing this bill. The government is actively working to secure the necessary two-thirds majority and is reportedly close to achieving it. Given the current numerical strength of the NDA and the opposition alliance, especially following splits within the TMC and Shiv Sena, the contest could be tight.
Opposition Unity Could Pose a Hurdle
If the central government brings the Delimitation Bill, opposition unity could once again emerge as a major obstacle. Behind-the-scenes efforts are underway by the NDA to gauge the stance of the DMK, NCP, and SP. Consequently, this period will prove both decisive and challenging regarding opposition unity.
While the positions of the Congress and the Samajwadi Party on the Delimitation Bill appear relatively clear, the NCP and DMK have not yet revealed their cards. These two parties could play a significant role in the outcome. This is likely why the government has not included the Delimitation Bill in the agenda for Monday’s proceedings in either the Lok Sabha or the Rajya Sabha.
Meanwhile, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju is continuously attempting to pressure the opposition camp, mp ranging from Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi to various other parties, on the delimitation issue by linking it to the implementation.
Breaching the Opposition Camp is Crucial for Passing the Bill
It is evident that the path for the Delimitation Bill will not be easy for the central government without making inroads into the opposition camp. If the opposition remains united and no defections or cross-voting occur, the bill is likely to fail. Following the dissolution of the INDIA alliance in Tamil Nadu, the central government hopes to secure support from M.K. Stalin’s DMK party. However, on the ground, the likelihood of the BJP receiving support from the DMK appears negligible.
What is the extent of the NDA’s majority in the Lok Sabha?
It is worth noting that even after the splits within the TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT), the NDA remains far from a two-thirds majority. The NDA initially had 293 members in the Lok Sabha. However, this figure rose with the addition of 20 MPs who broke away from the Trinamool Congress to form the NCPI.
With the inclusion of six MPs who defected from Shiv Sena (UBT) to join Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, the NDA’s total strength reached 319. When adding four members from the YSRCP and some independent MPs, the NDA’s tally in the Lok Sabha rises to 326; this includes one MP from the Akali Dal. Despite this, the NDA still falls short of the two-thirds mark.
How many members are required for the Delimitation Bill?
The Delimitation Bill requires a constitutional amendment; therefore, a two-thirds majority is essential for its passage. Previously, the NDA managed to garner the support of 298 MPs. There are currently 540 members in the Lok Sabha, with three seats Nowgong (Assam), Basirhat (Bengal), and Shillong (Meghalaya) lying vacant.
Consequently, a tally of at least 350 to 360 members is required to secure a two-thirds majority and pass the bill. This makes the role of the DMK’s 22 MPs crucial. If the DMK’s stance softens, the ruling coalition could easily arrange for the necessary additional four to six MPs.
