India-Russia trade
In light of geopolitical changes and the destabilizing impact of Trump’s tariffs, India and Russia aim to increase their bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030. We examine how the two countries have progressed in trade while overcoming obstacles since the 2022 war in Ukraine.
As the United States puts increasing pressure on both countries Russia with crippling sanctions and New Delhi with a crippling 50% tariff—this “strategic” drive serves to further solidify their mutual desire for “stable partners” in an increasingly unpredictable world.
It’s interesting to note that, according to trade statistics, the US acknowledges that trade between India and Russia is “increasing.” New Delhi has vehemently disputed whether India contributed to the Russian war machine in Ukraine, as Washington wants to think, and possibly rightfully so.
Bilateral commerce between Russia and India increased fivefold between 2022 and 2024, from $13.12 billion to $65.69 billion, according to government figures. Conversely, India and the US’s bilateral trade decreased from $128.78 billion in 2022 to $118.2 billion in 2024.
In 2024, India’s trade surplus with the US was $40 billion, but the situation with Russia is the opposite. India and Russia had a $57.14 billion trade deficit throughout that time.
S. Jaishankar, the Indian minister of external affairs, advocated for strengthening trade relations with Russia during his most recent trip to Moscow.
In order to achieve this goal, Jaishankar emphasized in his remarks at the India-Russia Business Forum how important it is to eliminate current trade barriers and lower non-tariff barriers.
The impact of tariffs and the pursuit of substitutes
It is evident how urgent this trade acceleration is, especially in light of the hostile trade policy of the Trump administration.
The 25% tax that the US has placed on Indian goods might affect India’s $85 billion in yearly exports to the US, and it has threatened to double to 50% by August 27.
In a vehement defense of its right to obtain energy from the most economical sources, India has called the US tariffs “unreasonable.” For New Delhi, being able to buy Russian oil at a discount has become essential to controlling domestic inflation, which is a top priority for any government.
Trade statistics and the problem of imbalance
For the year ending March 2025, India-Russian bilateral trade hit a record $68.7 billion. Although this amount indicates a notable increase, the $59 billion shortfall also shows a major imbalance.
Nuclear reactors, electronic products, organic chemicals, and pharmaceuticals are among India’s top exports to Russia. For example, India exported $3.04 billion to Russia between April and October of FY25, of which $829.43 million came from nuclear reactors alone.
