New Delhi: The bugle for the by-election in Bihar’s Bankipur assembly constituency has officially sounded. Prashant Kishor, founder of the Jan Suraaj Party, has sent the political temperature soaring by entering the fray from the Bankipur seat. Furthermore, the RJD, a major political force in Bihar, has attempted to make the contest even more intriguing by announcing its own candidate.
The Bankipur seat has long been a BJP stronghold; Nitin Navin, a prominent BJP leader, secured consecutive victories here. The seat fell vacant after he was appointed as a BJP office-bearer, setting the stage for a crucial test for the party. Rekha Gupta will be the RJD’s candidate. A split in opposition votes is now anticipated, which is expected to directly benefit the BJP alliance.
Caste Equations Favour the BJP
The caste dynamics of the Bankipur assembly constituency have served as a fortress for the BJP, enabling Nitin Navin to win five times and his father four times. Following Nitin Navin’s departure from the seat, Prashant Kishor decided to contest his first-ever election.
After Prashant Kishor’s announcement, the Congress had hoped that the INDIA alliance would not field a candidate. However, the RJD made the contest interesting by naming Rekha Gupta as its candidate on Monday. With the RJD entering the race, a division of opposition votes appears inevitable. This makes the battle particularly decisive for Prashant Kishor. The RJD could make significant inroads into the Yadav and Muslim vote banks, a move that would directly benefit the BJP candidate.
BJP Has Not Yet Fielded a Candidate
While Prashant Kishor (Jan Suraaj Party) and Rekha Gupta (RJD) have been declared candidates, the BJP has not yet revealed its hand. All eyes are on who the BJP will field. Prashant Kishor’s strategy has compelled the BJP to give the matter serious consideration.
For some time now, ‘PK’ has been raising pressing issues in Bihar, such as the Bhojpur incident, police encounters, the NEET student controversy, the alleged tender scam, unemployment, corruption, and governance. He has stated that the Bankipur by-election offers the public an opportunity to deliver their verdict on these issues. In any case, this election is considered crucial for Prashant Kishor; his performance here will influence the future course and direction of his political career.
RJD Deals a Blow to Congress
Congress appeared inclined to support a candidate against Prashant Kishor for the Bankipur Assembly seat. The party wanted the INDIA bloc to back PK, but the RJD did not allow this to happen. Instead, the RJD fielded Rekha Gupta—who had previously contested elections—as its candidate. Now, everyone is eagerly awaiting the announcement of the BJP’s candidate.
Rekha Gupta’s Past Association with Congress
RJD candidate Rekha Gupta was previously associated with the Congress party. She belongs to the Vaishya community. In Bankipur, the Vaishya community holds a significant number of votes, second only to the Kayastha community. Recognising the potential of the Vaishya vote bank, the RJD has placed its bet on Rekha Gupta. The party aims to win the election by consolidating Muslim, Yadav, and Vaishya votes—a political equation that could prove formidable for Prashant Kishor.
Understanding the Caste Equation
Kayastha voters make up 14 per cent of the electorate in the Bankipur Assembly constituency, numbering between 50,000 and 65,000. It is largely due to these votes that Nitin Navin and his father have secured consecutive victories since 1995. After the Kayasthas, Yadav voters constitute the largest group, accounting for 12 per cent (approximately 55,000 to 60,000 voters); they traditionally align with the RJD. The remaining demographic breakdown includes Muslims (10%), Chandravanshis (9%), the Vaishya community (9%), Dalits (8%), Bhumihars (7%), Brahmins (7%), Rajputs (5%), Kurmis (5%), and the Kushwaha community (3%).
