The rupee is expected to remain weak, potentially touching record lows due to tariff shock and capital outflows.
One-month non-deliverable forward suggests opening near its all-time low of ~88.7975 vs 88.6650 prior.
While India’s exports are largely generics, uncertainty over tariff definitions introduces risk to fore
ign investor sentiment.
Maturing forward/futures positions also add downside pressure to currency.
Some traders believe the RBI may intervene to stabilize the rupee if downside accelerates.
Dollar strength, weak foreign inflows, and tariff overhang make the rupee’s path fragile.
If rupee weakens further, imported inflation may rise, threatening margins and monetary variables.
Exporters could benefit from weaker currency, but only if they can maintain cost discipline.
Market reaction will depend on macro data and flow dynamics in coming sessions.
Overall, currency markets will likely be highly reactive to global and trade po
licy signals.